380

29

Pandemics

the utility of a mathematical model: “The essential value of models is that operations

on the models enable conclusions to be drawn about the behaviour of the system

represented”.

In the spirit of drug discovery (Chap. 27), sequence knowledge implying knowl-

edge of the structure of viral gene products (especially when informed by an actual

crystallographic structure determination of at least one variant) can serve to identify

possible vaccine targets, as well as targets for antiviral drugs. Genome analysis should

by no means be restricted to the genome of the virus itself. SARS-CoV-2-infected

respiratory cells not only have altered expression patterns, but genes, isoforms and

transposable elements may also be altered. ⁴

The rapid worldwide spread of SARS-CoV-2, enormously facilitated by mass

international air travel, has led to rapid evolution of the virus. This has made phylo-

genetic analysis (Sect. 17.7) of especial value. Genomic surveillance can reveal how

transmission occurs between individuals more informatively than the contact tracing

that became de rigueur in many countries during the height of the pandemic. ⁵

Phylogenetic information can also contribute to estimating upper RR, by allowing a dis-

tinction to be made between viruses imported into a population and those that have

spread within it. Such phylogenetic analysis was used to establish the origin of the

virus from Wuhan.

References

Ferrarini MG et al (2021) Genome-wide bioinformatics analyses predict key host and viral factors

in SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis. Commun Biol 4:590

Kucharski AJ, Russell TW, Diamond C, Liu Y, Edmunds J, Funk S, Eggo RM (2020) Early dynamics

of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study. Lancet Infect Dis

20:553–558

Swadi T et al (2021) Genomic evidence of in-flight transmission of SARS-CoV-2 despite prede-

parture testing. Emerg Infect Dis 27:687–693

Thomas P (2020) J-value assessment of how best to combat COVID-19. Nanotechnol Percept

16:16–40

Thomas P (2022) Modeling the epidemic of the COVID-19 omicron variant in England. Nanotechnol

Percept 18:89–115

4 Ferrarini et al. (2021).

5 Swadi et al. (2021).